Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
14.9 miles South of Searles Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
14.9 miles South of Searles Valley
35.5557°N, 117.4582°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 01:12:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
235h 0m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
41.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.57
Predicted M2.57 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
15.1 km
Pred. 7.4 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
039be4e4bbcd9f76ba814850520df688ab8d25aff789aac98531dab1eda123c2
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_231135_pred-35.56--117.46-20260518T0112
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 06:11:39 PST
Source Batch
20260507_231135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:00.657955+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.