Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
26.6 miles East of Indian Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.6 miles East of Indian Springs
36.4727°N, 115.2088°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of May 2026
May 14, 2026 05:04:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
142h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
46.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.16 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
12.5 km
Pred. 4.1 km vs actual 8.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1a1c1014e4b1f5c35dd4c40dc80d6c85675df423b2212ff773e002977bad4fd3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_231135_pred-36.47--115.21-20260514T0504
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 06:11:39 PST
Source Batch
20260507_231135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:00.657955+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.