Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
19.8 miles North-West of Warm Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.8 miles North-West of Warm Springs
38.4373°N, 116.5527°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 05:10:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M1.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
238h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
26.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
11.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M1.88 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
13.9 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 7.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
21f8b4d3f1e5c9f0d93ed11414b7ccf829d1f0e2206af30c683d2cd3c99549d7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_231135_pred-38.44--116.55-20260518T0510
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 06:11:39 PST
Source Batch
20260507_231135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:00.657955+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.