Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
5.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.2 miles North-East of Geyserville
38.7546°N, 122.8167°W
Forecast Time Window
7th of May 2026
May 07, 2026 22:10:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
7.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
12.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.14 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
7.2 km
Pred. 6.9 km vs actual 0.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
c209a12f0da49598be609815bd958a47208078be88e6a8121efa9253d68aa654
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_231135_pred-38.75--122.82-20260507T2210
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 06:11:39 PST
Source Batch
20260507_231135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:00.657955+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.