Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
11.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.3 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2542°N, 119.1363°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 18:16:24 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
60h 4m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.3 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
10.2 km
Pred. 7.9 km vs actual 2.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
36652f984519b286180a417a8b7d9014bb0e5aaa72b55f62aca4861e32cdab63
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_231135_pred-39.25--119.14-20260510T1816
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 06:11:39 PST
Source Batch
20260507_231135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:00.657955+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.