Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
10.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2791°N, 119.1094°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 17:26:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
59h 15m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
0.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
15.8 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 7.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b10266b712e872a0acb6bb58575124f2ce465652b318c55106d489043dfcb93e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260507_231135_pred-39.28--119.11-20260510T1726
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 06:11:39 PST
Source Batch
20260507_231135_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:47:00.657955+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.