Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
4.4 miles South of Moreno Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.4 miles South of Moreno Valley
33.8795°N, 117.2375°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 06:14:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
284h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
109.7 km
9.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
10.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.66
Predicted M3.36 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
18.1 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f989c034217868616d0b1ab9d955c9e38684ce0c8e621ca26f966d452487b3b1
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_030902_pred-33.88--117.24-20260520T0614
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 10:09:06 PST
Source Batch
20260508_030902_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:53.704256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.