Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
11.7 miles North-East of Soledad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.7 miles North-East of Soledad
36.4990°N, 121.1363°W
Forecast Time Window
26th of June 2026
Jun 26, 2026 16:14:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1182h 5m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
39.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.03
Predicted M3.03 vs actual M2.0
- 0.03 over limit
Depth Error
14.2 km
Pred. 8.1 km vs actual 6.1 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f1afe50d8dbd0f00f75c51729f678b407ccb0f6a4e51b217ad92642bc829b09a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_030902_pred-36.50--121.14-20260626T1614
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 10:09:06 PST
Source Batch
20260508_030902_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:53.704256+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.