Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
25.4 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
25.4 miles South of Crystal Springs
36.9866°N, 115.2808°W
Forecast Time Window
8th of May 2026
May 08, 2026 22:20:39 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
7h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
165.0 km
65.0 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
21.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.46
Predicted M2.86 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
12.3 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
80a78f4d85a8d2f1126032a379fee52f3d2b9c71638228ef078f5286de1b657a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_074834_pred-36.99--115.28-20260508T2220
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 14:48:37 PST
Source Batch
20260508_074834_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:54.504064+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.