Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
32.8 miles South-West of Eureka NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
32.8 miles South-West of Eureka NV
39.2394°N, 116.4647°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of May 2026
May 09, 2026 08:34:57 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
17h 46m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
88.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.27
Predicted M2.37 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.6 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 6.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ea668e95ca3107e0204e71d32a0338535f6e794342c35bdfa72aad1262b37307
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_074834_pred-39.24--116.46-20260509T0834
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 14:48:37 PST
Source Batch
20260508_074834_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:54.504064+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.