Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
22.8 miles South of Empire
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
22.8 miles South of Empire
40.2559°N, 119.2454°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of May 2026
May 09, 2026 06:40:46 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
15h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
105.6 km
5.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
0.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.35
Predicted M2.65 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
11.2 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 6.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
03cd3795e9e04a84ed736046fce6bd63ab6e8d44b3e69205c01e65ecde5348cd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_074834_pred-40.26--119.25-20260509T0640
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 08, 2026 14:48:37 PST
Source Batch
20260508_074834_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:54.504064+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.