Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
3.7 miles North-West of Haiwee
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.7 miles North-West of Haiwee
36.1766°N, 117.9924°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of May 2026
May 11, 2026 00:46:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
47h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
15.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.28 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
16.3 km
Pred. 8.7 km vs actual 7.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
42c2251e5d5a5daa272ec13ba9f9bacf440eb2a690db3a02366bdcf805f939f3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_175717_pred-36.18--117.99-20260511T0046
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 00:57:21 PST
Source Batch
20260508_175717_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:56.178992+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.