Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
4.9 miles South-West of Walker
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.9 miles South-West of Walker
38.4692°N, 119.5341°W
Forecast Time Window
19th of May 2026
May 19, 2026 08:49:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
247h 52m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
23.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
29.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.01
Predicted M2.09 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
10.8 km
Pred. 4.1 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1087e681c0cec49e279fdb4ab0f0381994f18b444d8012c21aa45f76d3a11f59
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_175717_pred-38.47--119.53-20260519T0849
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 00:57:21 PST
Source Batch
20260508_175717_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:56.178992+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.