Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
11.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.2 miles South-East of Silver Springs
39.2677°N, 119.1114°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of May 2026
May 11, 2026 14:25:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
61h 28m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
1.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.14
Predicted M2.54 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 7.3 km vs actual 8.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4b3bc05a8cd61de0b72b400d31642a6f59e2055d2d4dcfd3ac3e43d018642564
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_175717_pred-39.27--119.11-20260511T1425
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 00:57:21 PST
Source Batch
20260508_175717_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:56.178992+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.