Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
1.6 miles South-East of Covelo
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.6 miles South-East of Covelo
39.7808°N, 123.2211°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of May 2026
May 09, 2026 21:36:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
20h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
41.4 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.39
Predicted M2.49 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.3 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 8.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
07b5ad6aadb53a7e70c029c6c2f0aba142a6f65df98bd559ac9ef98dbdd70779
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_175717_pred-39.78--123.22-20260509T2136
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 00:57:21 PST
Source Batch
20260508_175717_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:56.178992+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.