Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
6.3 miles East of Banning
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.3 miles East of Banning
33.9014°N, 116.7710°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of July 2026
Jul 12, 2026 12:56:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1543h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
41.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.91
Predicted M3.11 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
15.7 km
Pred. 8.9 km vs actual 6.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
de81c576434fe9287ec36df3153d2a7dc311d8b2af0d0e6ab4d72d075e1ab806
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_225312_pred-33.90--116.77-20260712T1256
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 05:53:15 PST
Source Batch
20260508_225312_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:57.125623+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.