Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
19.0 miles South-West of Modesto
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.0 miles South-West of Modesto
37.4408°N, 121.2374°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 09:56:30 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2212h 3m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
98.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.88
Predicted M3.78 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
7.6 km
Pred. 2.6 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
6b86b2fe272baac4c843eb6c12c20cee81dfad32baeb21654534c295580bd80c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_225312_pred-37.44--121.24-20260809T0956
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 05:53:15 PST
Source Batch
20260508_225312_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:57.125623+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.