Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
21.5 miles West of Lovelock
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.5 miles West of Lovelock
40.2207°N, 118.8765°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of July 2026
Jul 12, 2026 15:16:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1545h 23m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
18.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.11
Predicted M3.01 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
12.0 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
665b6fd53381f8349a94d3f9a01d0469dfa0bde0b12b8ca674b1a5c94aea87b4
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260508_225312_pred-40.22--118.88-20260712T1516
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 05:53:15 PST
Source Batch
20260508_225312_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:57.125623+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.