Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
18.0 miles North of Duckwater
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.0 miles North of Duckwater
39.1107°N, 115.8189°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 01:03:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.9 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
14h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
95.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
14.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M2.22 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
11.5 km
Pred. 4.9 km vs actual 6.6 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
8e236cf87579af7ad44fd3af979334863748a037c8724630f39407b5de768ca0
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_034330_pred-39.11--115.82-20260510T0103
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 10:43:33 PST
Source Batch
20260509_034330_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:50.058661+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.