Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
12.9 miles East of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.9 miles East of Silver Springs
39.3352°N, 119.0066°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of May 2026
May 09, 2026 09:36:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.8
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
2.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.78 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
14.4 km
Pred. 8.0 km vs actual 6.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ddeb460d8d239098a73e3a967db055dbc1bb990680cc95164a0a9200f8566400
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_034330_pred-39.34--119.01-20260509T0936
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 10:43:33 PST
Source Batch
20260509_034330_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:50.058661+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.