Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
13.4 miles North of Soledad
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
13.4 miles North of Soledad
36.6184°N, 121.3071°W
Forecast Time Window
14th of August 2026
Aug 14, 2026 14:21:50 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2326h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
14.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
35.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
1.22
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M2.0
- 0.22 over limit
Depth Error
11.0 km
Pred. 9.6 km vs actual 1.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ecbe39ab70d4b5679af20bad994ef1d0968664719b00129270aae0e08fde7dd3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_090728_pred-36.62--121.31-20260814T1421
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 16:07:32 PST
Source Batch
20260509_090728_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:50.914235+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.