Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
23.7 miles South of Tracy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
23.7 miles South of Tracy
37.4083°N, 121.3142°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of August 2026
Aug 09, 2026 02:56:41 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.7 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2194h 49m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.92
Predicted M3.52 vs actual M2.6
Depth Error
9.0 km
Pred. 7.7 km vs actual 1.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
b189c475e57c7f9473dfa877144cf1573f0d6b67fa188f6cf7ef633291d17e4e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_090728_pred-37.41--121.31-20260809T0256
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 16:07:32 PST
Source Batch
20260509_090728_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:50.914235+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.