Permanent Prediction Record
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Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
11.7 miles South-East of Yosemite Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.7 miles South-East of Yosemite Valley
37.6166°N, 119.4538°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of July 2026
Jul 09, 2026 16:37:20 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1464h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
161.5 km
61.5 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
4.3 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.72
Predicted M3.02 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
7.2 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 0.4 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
44ec73b30939f763194adc2bfd58ba2cb8bf5254c0297f733f578ddf68f76938
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_090728_pred-37.62--119.45-20260709T1637
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 16:07:32 PST
Source Batch
20260509_090728_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:50.914235+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.