Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
18.1 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
18.1 miles South-West of Hawthorne NV
38.3953°N, 118.9160°W
Forecast Time Window
9th of July 2026
Jul 09, 2026 07:04:48 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1454h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
286.9 km
186.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
7.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M3.45 vs actual M3.5
Depth Error
16.0 km
Pred. 6.0 km vs actual 10.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e352de0250f336c2f86a3a6005b3078f627e7bbec6b6f956eae4aa5f20bd5cfe
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_090728_pred-38.40--118.92-20260709T0704
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 16:07:32 PST
Source Batch
20260509_090728_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:50.914235+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.