Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
44.7 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
44.7 miles South-West of Eureka
40.2812°N, 124.6676°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of July 2026
Jul 15, 2026 09:36:34 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1601h 29m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
58.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.78
Predicted M3.18 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
32.8 km
Pred. 4.3 km vs actual 28.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
1b1ff1277d6bd1c327752ba760fb0fcb38c09f1b4681bb0afc075187f070bc32
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_090728_pred-40.28--124.67-20260715T0936
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 16:07:32 PST
Source Batch
20260509_090728_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:50.914235+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.