Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M4.0
53.6 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
53.6 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3207°N, 124.9640°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of June 2026
Jun 02, 2026 23:01:23 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M4.0
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.1 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
582h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
5.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M3.98 vs actual M3.6
Depth Error
17.1 km
Pred. 7.1 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
67672ab2cd6ca605125bdd214b7e6914b667eb3f1463eb93b027e3c61401a304
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_090728_pred-40.32--124.96-20260602T2301
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 16:07:32 PST
Source Batch
20260509_090728_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:50.914235+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.