Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
19.0 miles South-East of Imlay
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.0 miles South-East of Imlay
40.5155°N, 117.8350°W
Forecast Time Window
13th of July 2026
Jul 13, 2026 01:14:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.5 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1545h 7m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
161.9 km
61.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
8.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M3.16 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
11.5 km
Pred. 6.5 km vs actual 5.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
d7812c6ef177c1455e3b20c14a630bd0b9150f75de231129b52aafd3f954db1f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_090728_pred-40.52--117.83-20260713T0114
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 16:07:32 PST
Source Batch
20260509_090728_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:50.914235+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.