Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
84.4 miles South-West of Lompoc
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
84.4 miles South-West of Lompoc
33.7699°N, 121.4973°W
Forecast Time Window
17th of May 2026
May 17, 2026 05:22:09 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
174h 27m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
276.6 km
176.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
35.9 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.32 vs actual M2.2
Depth Error
8.8 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 2.0 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
be7075407f01af9d01d1ef8366cdfb68ca09e51118cbeb022648a901fdcf590d
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_155427_pred-33.77--121.50-20260517T0522
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 22:54:31 PST
Source Batch
20260509_155427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:51.829786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.