Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
1.7 miles West of Dublin
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.7 miles West of Dublin
37.6996°N, 121.9670°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 09:09:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
154h 14m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
127.8 km
27.9 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
6.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.30
Predicted M2.2 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
7.3 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 0.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
62ae186e63bc20ae02c3fa4caab1580bbbfb339446cf2ae9e57ce678a45a7e5a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_155427_pred-37.70--121.97-20260516T0909
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 22:54:31 PST
Source Batch
20260509_155427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:51.829786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.