Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
12.3 miles North-East of Bridgeport
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
12.3 miles North-East of Bridgeport
38.4041°N, 119.1051°W
Forecast Time Window
18th of May 2026
May 18, 2026 06:05:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
199h 10m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
94.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.56 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
13.5 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 6.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0737efc5c48d01d8808025078a9a5cd02264aab4f7ca3b972a18df97bd9f59c3
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_155427_pred-38.40--119.11-20260518T0605
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 22:54:31 PST
Source Batch
20260509_155427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:51.829786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.