Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
4.3 miles North of Sebastopol
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
4.3 miles North of Sebastopol
38.4635°N, 122.8312°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 02:11:21 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
51h 16m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
40.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.21
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
8.6 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 1.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
723c91bd76099a8460d848567e8a3b52b6b4a4ecc9f97b162be653cd33e48041
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_155427_pred-38.46--122.83-20260512T0211
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 22:54:31 PST
Source Batch
20260509_155427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:51.829786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.