Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
11.9 miles East of Smith Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.9 miles East of Smith Valley
38.7525°N, 119.1282°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 06:48:59 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
55h 54m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
58.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
8.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.15
Predicted M2.25 vs actual M2.4
Depth Error
14.9 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 8.1 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
87e29d7736c1b981bfbc895f88910b291e009ffd4007b2e70ce2372debb46fb8
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_155427_pred-38.75--119.13-20260512T0648
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 22:54:31 PST
Source Batch
20260509_155427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:51.829786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.