Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
26.3 miles North-East of Potter Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
26.3 miles North-East of Potter Valley
39.6217°N, 122.8002°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 15:52:52 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
256h 58m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
22.3 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.02
Predicted M2.32 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
12.2 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 5.4 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9a7af3eb5167ceb4baa7d858f687ccd05ef2090cc271e54876ca38a8093db228
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_155427_pred-39.62--122.80-20260520T1552
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 22:54:31 PST
Source Batch
20260509_155427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:51.829786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.