Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
7.4 miles West of Greenville
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.4 miles West of Greenville
40.1514°N, 121.0895°W
Forecast Time Window
10th of May 2026
May 10, 2026 16:55:53 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
18h 1m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
56.0 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
9.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.26 vs actual M2.0
Depth Error
12.5 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 5.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
ea0679be0a0a4961d5a8de2f256ef02e18fee6ecca71ccb49d875ee3ae349994
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_155427_pred-40.15--121.09-20260510T1655
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 09, 2026 22:54:31 PST
Source Batch
20260509_155427_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:51.829786+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.