Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
278.4 miles South-West of San Simeon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
278.4 miles South-West of San Simeon
33.1474°N, 125.0238°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of July 2026
Jul 11, 2026 02:08:25 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
2.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1485h 53m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
433.3 km
333.3 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
174.5 h
138.5 h over 36 h limit
Magnitude Error
1.46
Predicted M3.56 vs actual M2.1
- 0.46 over limit
Depth Error
5.3 km
Pred. 2.6 km vs actual 2.7 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e122ac7cedfbd86d2dd9355f19dbb3bc07188243524f17b705416861d0bb5156
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_211522_pred-33.15--125.02-20260711T0208
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 04:15:25 PST
Source Batch
20260509_211522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:52.857289+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.