Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
3.9 miles South-West of Temecula
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.9 miles South-West of Temecula
33.4661°N, 117.2070°W
Forecast Time Window
21st of May 2026
May 21, 2026 21:39:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
281h 24m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
137.7 km
37.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
6.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.24
Predicted M3.14 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
20.0 km
Pred. 5.4 km vs actual 14.6 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4f06c7047a9b2d04aae62feeffe7cfeb7bc62e41335d711882ee7ec66f740982
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_211522_pred-33.47--117.21-20260521T2139
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 04:15:25 PST
Source Batch
20260509_211522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:52.857289+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.