Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
198.4 miles South-West of Monterey
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
198.4 miles South-West of Monterey
35.2406°N, 125.0181°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of July 2026
Jul 16, 2026 18:12:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
9.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1621h 57m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
353.4 km
253.4 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
13.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.31
Predicted M3.21 vs actual M2.9
Depth Error
20.7 km
Pred. 9.2 km vs actual 11.5 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
601b2bad027fac2b9447d2a15a5a683b5c817805c3aa7ef19676f6e4fed4a017
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_211522_pred-35.24--125.02-20260716T1812
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 04:15:25 PST
Source Batch
20260509_211522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:52.857289+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.