Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
11.9 miles South-West of Fallon
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
11.9 miles South-West of Fallon
39.3373°N, 118.9126°W
Forecast Time Window
23rd of May 2026
May 23, 2026 12:21:43 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.3
Predicted value
Focal Depth
5.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
320h 6m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
110.6 km
10.6 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
16.6 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M3.3 vs actual M3.2
Depth Error
22.9 km
Pred. 5.6 km vs actual 17.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
064ee6ab459dba43fb7f47e39e046795a56e1d08df6e4966409c25ea1277625a
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_211522_pred-39.34--118.91-20260523T1221
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 04:15:25 PST
Source Batch
20260509_211522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:52.857289+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.