Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
5.3 miles West of Silver Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
5.3 miles West of Silver Springs
39.3866°N, 119.3305°W
Forecast Time Window
2nd of June 2026
Jun 02, 2026 13:02:54 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.2 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
560h 47m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
20.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
17.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.18
Predicted M3.22 vs actual M3.4
Depth Error
20.1 km
Pred. 8.2 km vs actual 11.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
e2462de0da2701387c45dd17949f8a937a6bb60763f0bbb9ce6d8ec68950128f
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_211522_pred-39.39--119.33-20260602T1302
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 04:15:25 PST
Source Batch
20260509_211522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:52.857289+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.