Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
40.9 miles South-West of Eureka
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
40.9 miles South-West of Eureka
40.3502°N, 124.6679°W
Forecast Time Window
15th of August 2026
Aug 15, 2026 16:35:01 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
2340h 19m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
33.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
28.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.49
Predicted M3.19 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
14.9 km
Pred. 4.6 km vs actual 10.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
f312d576a10dd7361c06d141964f76029624729d34e09278683b079355766eb5
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260509_211522_pred-40.35--124.67-20260815T1635
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 04:15:25 PST
Source Batch
20260509_211522_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:52.857289+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.