Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
1.7 miles South-East of Moreno Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
1.7 miles South-East of Moreno Valley
33.9275°N, 117.2066°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 21:32:45 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
58h 51m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
49.5 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
4.4 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.26
Predicted M2.36 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
25.3 km
Pred. 7.8 km vs actual 17.5 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
77060bddedb736572f9174ed00d8210fa06cb774c94413f7f7503591d4c06118
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_034056_pred-33.93--117.21-20260512T2132
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 10:40:59 PST
Source Batch
20260510_034056_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:46.599900+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.