Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
3.9 miles South-East of Fillmore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.9 miles South-East of Fillmore
34.3627°N, 118.8654°W
Forecast Time Window
11th of May 2026
May 11, 2026 21:20:05 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
4.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
34h 39m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
6.8 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
26.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.42
Predicted M2.52 vs actual M2.1
Depth Error
13.7 km
Pred. 4.8 km vs actual 8.9 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
bd2196bb34be14b3288094efd4f588c3e16671d88cc1ba26835875a9f72bad2c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_034056_pred-34.36--118.87-20260511T2120
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 10:40:59 PST
Source Batch
20260510_034056_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:46.599900+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.