Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
7.2 miles North-East of Cambria
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.2 miles North-East of Cambria
35.6601°N, 121.0285°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 23:13:33 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.2
Predicted value
Focal Depth
3.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
60h 32m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Nearest Recorded Event
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
This is the recorded earthquake closest to qualifying. It fell outside one or more tolerances, so the prediction is graded a false positive. Parameters within tolerance are shown in green; those outside are in red.
Distance Error
102.7 km
2.7 km over 100 km limit
Time Error
6.8 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.09
Predicted M2.21 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
10.5 km
Pred. 3.3 km vs actual 7.2 km
Nearest Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
0d0813e515bbf7f109ab459553282f10980f57a5e2f671f55615579d662238ba
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_034056_pred-35.66--121.03-20260512T2313
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 10:40:59 PST
Source Batch
20260510_034056_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:46.599900+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.