Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
21.0 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
21.0 miles South of Crystal Springs
37.0507°N, 115.2848°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 23:58:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.7
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.0 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
61h 17m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
4.7 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
0.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.16
Predicted M2.66 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
17.7 km
Pred. 7.0 km vs actual 10.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
9ffca9870568eb808d45c107e43fe10cabb15872b77a5ca723d9039db78fc694
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_034056_pred-37.05--115.28-20260512T2358
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 10:40:59 PST
Source Batch
20260510_034056_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:46.599900+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.