Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
19.3 miles South of Crystal Springs
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
19.3 miles South of Crystal Springs
37.0745°N, 115.2791°W
Forecast Time Window
12th of May 2026
May 12, 2026 17:59:47 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.5
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.6 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
55h 18m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
2.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
6.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.05
Predicted M2.45 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
17.3 km
Pred. 6.6 km vs actual 10.7 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
a71bfc5325b6e77213cd76a91e10d85e7370a6d99bacf3b341c20f87cded20f7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_034056_pred-37.07--115.28-20260512T1759
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 10:40:59 PST
Source Batch
20260510_034056_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:46.599900+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.