Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
6.1 miles North of Milpitas
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
6.1 miles North of Milpitas
37.5209°N, 121.9030°W
Forecast Time Window
20th of May 2026
May 20, 2026 16:31:31 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.1
Predicted value
Focal Depth
7.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
245h 50m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
79.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
36.0 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.22
Predicted M2.08 vs actual M2.3
Depth Error
13.7 km
Pred. 7.4 km vs actual 6.2 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
4365c597a1b20346240e41363d37a7d0406df4f6a7f797b73a18bd4064de37fa
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_034056_pred-37.52--121.90-20260520T1631
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 10:40:59 PST
Source Batch
20260510_034056_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:46.599900+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.