Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
10.7 miles South-West of Rice
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
10.7 miles South-West of Rice
33.9308°N, 115.0938°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of July 2026
Jul 24, 2026 09:12:13 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M3.4
Predicted value
Focal Depth
10.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
1793h 42m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
97.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
16.2 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.38
Predicted M3.38 vs actual M3.0
Depth Error
23.1 km
Pred. 10.8 km vs actual 12.3 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
53af330d1dd573dd796571fa74464c18662a30ccaa67a47ec60e9f4520aff21c
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_082921_pred-33.93--115.09-20260724T0912
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 15:29:25 PST
Source Batch
20260510_082921_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:47.578729+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.