Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
8.8 miles South-East of North Shore
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
8.8 miles South-East of North Shore
33.4295°N, 115.8826°W
Forecast Time Window
16th of May 2026
May 16, 2026 13:55:14 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.8 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
134h 43m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
58.9 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
5.5 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.12
Predicted M2.62 vs actual M2.5
Depth Error
15.6 km
Pred. 6.8 km vs actual 8.8 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
93f81c3d9d93e664fb757e56a0c5c72a72aa61533ede13df3da9f3e8813808e7
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_161124_pred-33.43--115.88-20260516T1355
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 23:11:28 PST
Source Batch
20260510_161124_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:48.384220+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.