Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
7.9 miles South-East of Lockwood Valley
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
7.9 miles South-East of Lockwood Valley
34.6474°N, 119.0886°W
Forecast Time Window
25th of May 2026
May 25, 2026 13:31:38 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.9
Predicted value
Focal Depth
8.4 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
350h 20m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
91.1 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
13.7 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.10
Predicted M2.9 vs actual M2.8
Depth Error
18.4 km
Pred. 8.4 km vs actual 10.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
5cd4ae324b8e296b3c8796dadad2685d81d4d117466bdfd989cc01a785e6295e
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_161124_pred-34.65--119.09-20260525T1331
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 23:11:28 PST
Source Batch
20260510_161124_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:48.384220+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.