Permanent Prediction Record
×
Window Elapsed
No Match Found
The forecast window has closed. No qualifying seismic event was recorded within the predicted parameters.
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
3.7 miles South-East of Gilroy
Original Prediction Parameters
Predicted Location
3.7 miles South-East of Gilroy
36.9727°N, 121.5162°W
Forecast Time Window
24th of May 2026
May 24, 2026 03:33:18 PST
Predicted Magnitude
M2.6
Predicted value
Focal Depth
6.3 km
Below surface
Prediction Type
Prospective
Live forward-issued before the event
Lead Time
316h 21m
Advance notice before predicted event time
Location Map
Predicted epicentre
Matched Earthquake
⚠ Preliminary - subject to revision when the pipeline confirms the result
A recorded earthquake fell within every matching tolerance, so this prediction is graded a true positive. Each parameter below shows how close the match was.
Distance Error
86.2 km
Within 100 km tolerance
Time Error
1.1 h
Within 36 h tolerance
Magnitude Error
0.06
Predicted M2.64 vs actual M2.7
Depth Error
11.3 km
Pred. 6.3 km vs actual 5.0 km
Matched Event Location
-
Integrity & Provenance
Integrity Fingerprint (SHA-256)
RETROSPECTIVE
66cde5bcb25527161d55eea44752af18771d32658ac5ba74b1b8d111af00cfdd
This prediction was ingested before fingerprinting was introduced. The value above is a retrospective fingerprint computed from the current stored fields - it reflects the current state, not a preserved original snapshot. Future predictions will carry an immutable fingerprint set at ingestion time.
Prediction ID
20260510_161124_pred-36.97--121.52-20260524T0333
Evaluation Protocol
v1
Model Version
v1
Prediction Type
Prospective
Publication Batch (UTC)
May 10, 2026 23:11:28 PST
Source Batch
20260510_161124_prediction_JSON_file.json
First Recorded (UTC)
2026-06-18 07:46:48.384220+00:00
Amendment History
No amendments have been recorded for this prediction. Original values are unchanged.